Northern Development Initiative Trust’s (NDIT) second annual State of the North Report is out, and things are getting better. And worse. And staying the same, depending on which sector of the economy you are looking at.
“It’s a bit of a mixed bag,” says Joel McKay, Chief Executive Officer for NDIT in the report. “Certainly, the outlook in the energy and oil and gas sector is more positive heading into 2019 than it was a year ago thanks to a positive investment decision for the LNG Canada project in Kitimat, its accompanying Coastal GasLink pipeline and continued construction at BC Hydro’s Site C project near Fort St. John.
“As well, AltaGas’ propane export terminal on Ridley Island near Prince Rupert is nearing completion creating yet more long-term jobs and opportunities for that part of the region. Things are looking a bit more positive in the mining sectoras well, where a bump in steel-making coal prices lifted the fortunes of Tumbler Ridge and Chetwynd over the past two years and boosted the amount of export activity at Ridley Terminals.”
But, while things are on the rise for energy and mining, forestry is “a more challenging story.”
While record prices kept forestry companies in the black in 2018, export tariffs put a dent in the volume of lumber, part of the ongoing Softwood Lumber dispute with the US. And, wildfires have taken a large chunk out of the available timber supply, already hurting in the wake of the Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic and the current challenges with spruce and firbeetles.
“Looking forward, reduced timber supply will place continued downward pressure on this sector and force some forestry companies to rationalize their operations, which could mean shutdowns, further job loss and community impacts in the coming years,” says McKay.
And, in the good news category, unemployment rates in the north have dropped slightly to 6.4 percent. After increasing between 2014 and 2016, the rate is starting to head the other way.
“Continued declines in the unemployment rate are expected throughout Northern BC as the construction of the LNG Canada export facility and associated infrastructure begins,” says the report. “The scale of that project suggests that its impacts will be felt throughout BC and could exacerbate the already tight labour market conditions in the province.”
“As we move into 2019 the economy in Northern B.C. is stable but not without its challenges,” says McKay. “A number of the capital projects moving forward in the coming years, both industry projects and public sector projects such as highways, schools and hospitals, will provide employment and revenue boosts to smaller communities. These will hopefully help to offset, somewhat, challenges faced in the forestry sector and other market factors that remain unpredictable.”
The Northeast corner of the province is seeing a spike in employment, with over $17 million in major projects in the works, from Site C to Coastal GasLink.
With eight mineral mines, eight metal mines and three quarries operating in the north, metallurgic coal is still the driving force in the mining sector. And with prices rising 18 percent in 2017 and continuing the upward trend last year, the three operating metallurgic coal mines should continue to drive the economy of the region forward.
Looking forward, there is another coal mine being proposed, along with 12 new metal mines and two quarries.
And, after a drop in drilling activity from 2014 to 2017, things are looking up for oil and gas.
Part of that is driven by the decision to build the LNG Canada facility in Kitimat and the Coastal GasLink pipeline. Together, says the report, these projects will inject as much as $10 billion in spending directly into the B.C. economy while employing over 7,000 people during the construction phase.
Making a living
The minimum estimated wage needed to survive in the North is $16.51. In the Northeast, that is slightly higher, at $18.29.
The average wage in Northern BC was $21.75. This is above the baseline amount needed to survive, but below the average wage for the province as a whole, which is $25.71.
The living wage in the Northern B.C. is estimated to be in a range of $16.51 per hour in the North Central region to $18.29 in the Northeast. Wages paid in Northern B.C. averaged $21.75 in 2017, well above the living wage for the region but below than the $25.71 average wage in B.C.
The best paid sector in the north (or rather, the best paid sector that was tracked) were nurses, at $38/hour. Elementary school teachers and kindergarten teachers made about $34.87 on average, while the best paid trade was heavy-duty equipment mechanics, who made about $31.87, on average, followed by heavy equipment operators, at $30.
Some occupations netted less than the average living wage, including home support workers, food and beverage servers and people who worked in retail sales.
Wages in the northeast were generally higher than elsewhere in the north, though carpenters and heavy equipment operators were lower.
In the northeast, the population rose to 68,110, up .2 percent from 2016.
For people looking to buy a home in Tumbler Ridge, the cost in was nearly 25 percent higher in Q3 2018 than in 2017, though with such a small market, it can be extremely volatile.
In 2017, only three houses sold, at an average of $145,000. In 2018, nine houses sold at an average of $154,000. Which sounds like a trend, but in Q1 of 2017, the average price of the three houses that sold was $190,000.
In 2018, the Q1 average for the 12 houses that sold was $120,000, well down from the same time period the year before.
However, the number of houses being sold has gone up, from 18 in 2017 to 37 in 2018.
