Back when I was in college, I took a course with Professor Doug Cousineau. The “textbook”, such as it was, was a brief, 144 page paperback called How to Lie with Statistics. The book, originally published in 1954, is probably the single bestselling book on statistics (not a high bar to clear, I know), which is ironic since the point of the book is about bad stats.
While the title might imply the book is a how-to (it’s on the tin, after all), what it is, in fact, is a takedown of tricks that hucksters and shysters play with statistics.
These days, it is probably best known for the fact the author, Darrell Huff, was paid by big tobacco to poke holes in any connection between tobacco usage and disease and was on his way to writing a book called How to Lie with Smoking Statistics, paid for, again, by the tobacco industry.
And, while statistics and facts can be some of the most persuasive facts (like the fact that about 72 percent of people in Canada who have had lung cancer also smoked), they can be used to mislead and obfuscate information.
One of my favourite comedians, Don McMillan, also talks about the way statistics are used and abused. For instance, he talks about how a Weight Watchers commercial guarantees that people on the program will lose three pounds a week. “In the same commercial, they offer you a lifetime membership,” quips McMillan. “If both those statements are true, I’ll be gone in a year and a half.”
I was thinking about statistics and Huff’s book after I came across a post that purported to show the increase in violent crimes in the country, which have gone up since 2016.
The chart showed violent crimes since 2006. From 450,000 in 2006, the rate of violent crime dropped to under 375,000 in 2014.
In Nov 4, the Liberals took over from the Conservatives, and by 2018, the rate had climbed to over 475,000. By 2022, the last year on the chart, the rate of violent crime had risen to over 525,000.
Rob Moore, (Conservative) member of parliament for Fundy Royal (that’s in New Brunswick) originally shared the chart, saying “The skyrocketing rate of crime under three Liberal mandates didn’t happen by accident, it happened by design. Liberal soft-on-crime bills like C-5 and C-75 ended mandatory jail time for crimes like robbery with a firearm and drive-by shootings, they let thieves, arsonists and human traffickers serve house arrest, and allowed violent, repeat offenders to be released on bail only to re-offend. This trajectory will only continue if Liberals are given a fourth mandate.”
Here’s the deal, though. It’s easy to suggest that these two things are related, but just because a politician says so, doesn’t make it true: Liberal, Conservative or Rhino.
But, I hear you ask, isn’t it true that crime rates have been on the rise since Trudeau took power in 2015? Yes, it is. And that totally sucks.
But here’s something that isn’t mentioned by Moore. Violent crime? Was already on the rise. It hit its lowest level in 2014, with 736 incidents per 100,000 people. In 2015, that number climbed to 755 per 100,000 people. That climb wasn’t a result of “soft on crime” policies, as those policies weren’t in place yet. Violent crime rates were already climbing under the Conservatives.
Why? Who knows. Maybe criminals saw the writing on the wall. They expected the Liberals to win and to go soft and began their crime spree early.
Let’s look at the data long-term. The total number of violent crimes reported peaked in 1993, with 1,084 out of 100,000 people. Let’s see, who was in power leading up to that… Ah. It was the Conservatives. Crime rates climbed while Brian Mulroney was in power, but it also began its downward trend almost, but not quite, when the Liberals were re-elected.
And crime rates continued to drop under them and then the Conservatives. In fact, the crime figures seem almost to be party agnostic, like there are larger social issues at work or something. Maybe—and I’m just spitballing here—maybe there is no statistical relation between what party is in power and crime rates.
In the States, violent crime rates bottomed out in 2014 as well. While they haven’t seen an upswing in violent crimes, there appears to be no connection between what power is in power and crime rates. They fell steadily until 2014, then held.
In England and Wales, violent crime hit its bottom in 2012, and began climbing. up until last year, when it began to drop again. That happened smack dab in the middle of a Conservative’s government and rose until 2024, when the Labour party took over.
So, has there been an upswing in crime in Canada over the last decade? Most certainly. Violent crime rates have risen from 755 incidents per 100,000 people in 2015 to 967 per 100,000 in 2023. That’s an increase of 22 percent.
Is there a connection between the numbers? Yes. In statistics, that’s called “correlation.” That’s when two factors appear to change at the same time. Like drowning deaths rise during the summer, which is also peak ice cream sales time. Does ice cream cause people to drown? No, both have a larger cause: the fact that it’s summer.
Another example. Dinosaurs couldn’t read, and went extinct. Therefore, illiteracy leads to extinction.
Implying causation, that this thing—the election of a Liberal government —is what caused the rise in violent crime, is much harder to prove.
But in politics, it doesn’t matter. That’s exactly what we do: take the numbers and make them say what we want.
It’s like they always tell you: the numbers don’t lie. Unless, of course, they do.
And just like ice cream doesn’t cause drowning deaths, maybe, just maybe, there are more important things we need to change in society if we want to affect violent crime rates, rather than merely changing what party is in charge.
Trent is the publisher of Tumbler RidgeLines.
