While the province started off the year just slightly off average in terms of precipitation, the last few weeks have seen very little precipitation, and has slipped to below average in terms of the amount of snow and rain that has fallen so far this winter.
The BC Peace spent much of last year in drought conditions, and is looking for a lot of moisture before spring. Fortunately, the Peace Region has been doing better than average, and is at 99 percent the average snowfall at this time of year, with the local station at Monkman Creek registering 300 mm of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), or 120 percent seasonal average.
The SWE is the amount of water that would be there if all the snow in a given area were melted at once. SWE is a key indicator of water availability, and is used to estimate flood forecasting in spring. SWE is determined by the snow’s depth, density, type, and changes in the pack. Previous freeze/thaw cycles and recent rainfall events can affect SWE.
Elsewhere in the province, though, the story isn’t as positive. Despite having some huge storms early in the year, the South Coast is currently at 71 percent average SWE. One weather station at Pallisade Lake recieved 500 percent its average precipitation the first week in November, but it all fell as rain, meaning the next week, it was down to 0 percent. It has been well below average ever since.
January typically averages the highest mountain snow accumulation of any month, but according to the BC Snow Conditions and Water Supply Bulletin, “monthly snowpack accumulation is trending well below normal at the halfway point of January 2025 due to prolonged dry weather patterns. Only one impactful storm directed at the northern coastal regions brought a meaningful snow accumulation during the January 10–12 weekend. Another storm is impacting the same area over the next couple days; however, weather models predict the rest of the province to remain relatively dry for the upcoming 10-day weather forecast.”
This does not bode well for the province after a couple years with higher-than-normal fire conditions and poor growing conditions in the Peace.
The provincial average for January 15 at all ASWS sites is 89 percent, down from 98 percent on January 1.
Vancouver has seen 34 mm of rain so far this month, compared to the 162.1 mm it would normally get, making it the third driest January on record.
This is good news for people hoping to head out into the backcountry, as above average snowfall means great riding conditions. That, plus not a lot of wind means that avalanche conditions are pretty stable. For now. A few cold weather events mean that there’s some buried weak layers down in the snowpack, which could mean some big avalanches as spring thaw sets in.
Wind slabs are the main concern currently, with wind loading in shallow rocky start zones are the most likely to produce an unexpected avalanche.
A shallow rocky start zone is an area of the snow pack that is shallow and perforated by rocks. This is known to promote the formation of weak, faceted snow.
Weak layers present in a shallow snow pack are also normally closer to the surface than in deeper snow pack areas. This places these layers closer to the triggering forces of a person or machine traveling on the snow above.
Avalanches triggered in shallow snowpack areas often have fracture lines that propagate to deeper snowpack areas. These areas should be avoided when traveling in avalanche terrain.
Other things to look for when travelling in avalanche terrain include:
Recent avalanche activity, particularly slab avalanches that have occurred in the last 48 hours.
Remote-triggered avalanches. This is where an avalanche occurs on a slope some distance from where it was triggered. Often, remote-triggered avalanches are triggered from flatter terrain adjacent to avalanche slopes, such as ridge crests, benches or areas immediately below avalanche paths.
Whumpfs are the collapsing of a weak layer in the snowpack. It often has an accompanying loud ‘whumpf’ sound.
Shooting cracks that appear in the snow from under your sled, skis, board, snowshoes or feet.
Hollow or drum-like sounds caused by moving over the snow surface.
Snow shedding naturally from trees, which suggests the snowpack is warming rapidly.
Snow pinwheeling or snowballing down slopes, which are other signs of a warming snowpack.
These signs of instability indicate the snowpack structure is primed for human-triggering. The weight of a person or machine moving over the snow could be sufficient to release an avalanche. If you notice any of these signs, the safest course of action is to avoid exposure to avalanche terrain. Stick to low angled, simple terrain, or routes that stay within densely forested terrain. Note, that the absence of signs of instability does not indicate the absence of avalanche danger.
Trent is the publisher of Tumbler RidgeLines.
