Tumbler Ridge Housing Needs Report

Just weeks before the news came out that the average single family home in Tumbler Ridge was now worth, on average, over $200,000 for the first time in more than a decade, Sarah Ravlic, a Social Health and Well-being Planner from Urban Matters (a sister company of Urban Systems) came before council to present a Housing Needs Report.

The District last undertook a Housing Needs Assessment in 2021, says Ravlic, but in late 2023, the provincial government updated the requirements for these sorts of reports, and mandated that all municipalities in the province needed to complete an interim Housing Needs Report by January 1, 2025.

In that time, new census data has come available. So while the 2021 report used data from 2016, the new report uses data from the 2021 census.

“There were three key changes or updates required for these interim Housing Needs Reports,” says Ravlic. “This includes that the number of housing units required to meet current and anticipated needs be projected for the next five and 20 years, which is a longer timeline than most municipalities looked at in their first round of Housing Needs Reports. There’s also the need for additional statements of need for housing near transit or active transportation infrastructure, where that is relevant, and then a description of municipal action taken since adopting the previous Housing Needs Report.”

Tumbler Ridge’s population grew considerably between 2016 and 2021, she says. “There was a 20 percent increase. Prior to that, there was a dip between 2011 and 2016, due to changing economic activity in in the area. We’re seeing a recovery in population in 2021 and anticipate that that has probably continued since then.”

The largest group of people with housing in the community are census families without children. “About 50 percent of households are without children. These can consist of married couples who don’t have kids, or older couples whose children may have moved out and no longer live with them.” The second largest group are non-census families, at 39 percent. These include people who are living on their own or living with people who are not related to them, say with a roommate.

From 2016 to 2021, there were 235 new households, to a total of 1,095 households as of 2021. “This is interesting when we look at the pattern compared to population growth over this same time period,” she says. “The overall population decreased from 2006 to 2021, but the number of private households actually increased. This is likely a result of shifting household dynamics. We might be seeing a population where existing residents are establishing their own separate households. For instance, adult children who are moving out of their parents’ home to live independently.”

Of the households in town, 69 percent are owned by the people who live there, while 31 percent of households are rented.

She says that renters are generally younger people, while home ownership becomes common starting with people at about 35 years of age. This is common across the province.

Ravlic says 69 percent of the homes in Tumbler Ridge are single detached homes and that 71 percent of the homes were built between 1981 and 1990. “Since then, there has been a relatively low rate of development. Only seven percent of the houses in town were built in the last 25 years.”

In the five years between 2016 and 2021, the average income of homeowners increased by 34 percent. “Renters saw an increase of 52 percent. However, home owners still make about 38 percent more on average than renter households.” She says that there was a trend in renter households in 2021 across the country, which can be attributed in part to Covid benefits. “We may see that some of that shifts or levels out in the next round of of census data.”

While the value of single detached homes rose 11 percent between 2016 and 2021, she says she has spoken to local real estate professionals, who say there has been an increase in the average price of single detached homes from 2022 to 2024. “This is likely driven by growing demand for housing as mining activity has increased in the area.”

By taking the amount people are making and looking at the cost of home ownership, she says, they can take and do an affordability analysis, broken down by household type. “Housing is considered to be affordable when a household is paying no more than 30 percent of their income per month on shelter costs.”

Using that metric, she says, Tumbler Ridge offers affordable housing on average across all housing types.

Another important indicator, she says, is core housing need. That is the name given when a family is paying more than 30 percent of its income on housing, when a family has outgrown its current home but can’t afford to move to a larger home, or when a house is in need of repair, but can’t afford to do them.

In Tumbler Ridge, she says, core housing need seems to have peaked in 2016, with renter households having the most significant rate of core housing need. “We see quite a significant drop off in 2021 in both renter and owner households in core housing need, with temporary relief measures due to the pandemic likely having influenced some of that drop off. But we also know that the mines reopening in 2016 likely has decreased the rate of core housing needs.”

The province, she says, has asked that the District look at five year and 20 year housing capacity projections. “They require several additional components be looked at, beyond just projected growth of the community. This is not just about population growth, but looking at some more detailed components of housing need. For instance, core housing need is considered extreme in households that are paying more than 50 percent of their income on housing. What’s the number of units needed to address those types of needs in the community? How much supply is needed to reduce rates of homelessness? How much supply is needed to address suppressed household formations, which are households that would otherwise be forming but for whatever reason cannot, say adult children who live at home because they are unable to afford to move out.”

Additionally, is there enough rental vacancies on the market, and finally, is there a demand buffer. She says a healthy vacancy rate is three to five percent.

To meet projected demand using the provincial methodology, she says, Tumbler Ridge would need to bring 109 new units on stream in the next five years, and 395 over the next 20 years. Most of that demand would be new people in town.

“The Current and Assessed Housing Need calculation shows that a total of 395 units are required over the next 20 years to support current and future housing need and local market demand in Tumbler Ridge,” she says. “The primary tool through which municipalities undertake these efforts is their Official Community Plan. Previously, local governments were required to accommodate five years of growth through their OCPs. However, Bill 44, introduced by the provincial government in 2023, requires OCPs to now accommodate 20 years of growth. Under current legislation, this OCP update must be completed by December 31, 2025. Provincial legislation also requires that Tumbler Ridge must complete a regular update to their housing needs report by December 31st, 2028.”

Councillor Norbury asks what type of housing is needed to have the biggest impact over the next few years.

Ravlic says this is not something they looked at specifically, but Councillor Norbury is probably on the right track when he suggests maybe more condo units, as nearly a third of the current housing is single indivduals. “It’s really those smaller units that aren’t necessarily available,” she says. “There is a large percentage of single family homes

but there may be more opportunity for that kind of one or two bedroom unit or home. That being said, that’s just speculation based on what we’re seeing in the population now. We haven’t actually done a breakdown of housing types.”

And, of course, this is only using the provincial methodology to project potential demand, and does not factor in what happens if a new mine opens up in the next few years. (Note: we were expecting to hear what was happening with PRC by the end of the year, but haven’t yet. Hopefully we will know by next issue.)

“There’s a lot of components that go into this, and those numbers are about just making sure that planning policy and the planning environment is able to accommodate at minimum that level of growth. It doesn’t necessarily account for more mines opening. There could be quite a bump in the population and that anticipated need could increase or decrease over time.

“What the provincial government is looking for is they have this prescribed methodology so growth can be accommodated within planning policy and the planning environment. It doesn’t necessarily identify actual growth; it’s around making sure that the policies are accommodating enough. It’s a base number defined by the Province through this really prescriptive methodology that they have. The methodology is not necessarily realistic for all communities. I wouldn’t hold on to this too strongly as this is the projected growth for our community; it’s really just one way to think about it.”