Be careful out there.
After a year of low to moderate avalanche danger, recent weather patterns are conspiring to increase the level of avalanche danger in the Tumbler Ridge area.
That’s the word from Randy Guilick a local guide and avalanche forecaster.
He says that the recent warm spell after a prolonged period of cold weather will probably create an icy layer in the snow pack, and with more snow in the forecast, there’s a good chance that will make the new snow more prone to giving way.
That and high winds, which will lead to wind slabs, means the avalanche danger is going to be high to considerable for the next little while. (On Monday, January 17, avalanche danger was high in the alpine, high at treeline and high below treeline. By Wednesday—the day the paper arrives in town—the danger for below treeline will have dropped to low.)
Warm weather also means it’s more likely that there will be surface hoar frost, which again, creates a persistent weak layer in the snow pack when new snow falls.
“If you avoid avalanche terrain, and stay out of the alpine, you should be fairly safe,” says Guilick. “Slopes below 25 degrees should still be safe, but it’s hard to find that sort of terrain in the alpine.”
Guilick also cautions that avalanche dangers being formed now may not show up for a few more months if they get buried in snow. Instead, these create deep, persistent weak layers, which have a habit of creating major avalanche events when they release in the spring.
“One of the first things you should do before heading out is check the Avalanche Canada website,” says Guilick.
While this year has not seen a lot of avalanche reports in the Tumbler Ridge area, he says people always need to be safe before heading out. “There was a fatality in Hasler, up near Chetwynd, in November.”
In that incident, a group of four riders were out in the Sunshine Bowl area of Hasler, near Pine Lemoray Provincial Park on November 27, 2021, when one of them triggered the slide.
Three of the group were caught in the avalanche. Two were partially buried and were able to self rescue. The third was not.
That slide was rated as a size three, meaning it moved more than 10,000 cubic metres of snow for several hundred metres. The avalanche was caused by a weak layer about 60 cm under the surface giving way.
Guilick says that conditions can change across the slope, depending on how steep it is and how the sun hits it. “A cloudy day will warm the snow more than if it’s sunny,” he says, pointing out the clouds trap the energy and reflect it back down to the snow. One of the easiest things people can do is keep track of the forecast. “In December, we installed the Core Lodge Weather Station. Just go to www.avalanche.ca to find the weather station report. There you’ll find the current weather conditions, temperature, snow pack and wind conditions. It updates to the internet every hour.”
Identifying a weak layer in the snow during a training course.
Trent is the publisher of Tumbler RidgeLines.
